For example (1000 BB 31.77) means the player was in the middle of a downswing of at least 1,000 big blinds.77 percent of the e second table shows how long downswings swedish series bonus family last on average. .
PLO full ring: 100-140 BB/100, pLO 6-max: 120-160 BB/100 stat can be found in PokerTracker or HEM in BB / 100, number of hands to simulate.Example for standard deviations, nLH full ring: 60-80 BB/100, nLH 6-max: 75-120 BB/100.In this example the simulated player ended up with winnings over 25,000 big blinds after.5 million hands but had to deal with a nasty downswing of almost 10,000 big blinds between hand.2 million and hand 2 million.While the sample winnings have their scale on the right axis, the downswing tracker has its scale on the left axis.Just enter your winrate, standard deviation and the amount of hands to simulate.Minimum bankroll for less than 5 risk of ruin : the bankroll needed to have a risk of ruin of less than 5 Detailed sample with downswings This chart simulates a single run over 100 thousand up to 10 million hands with the winrate and.In general these simulations underestimate the extent of downswings, but the numbers should still give you a decent idea of the vastness of downswings you should expect.What you need to know about them is that at any given time your winnings will be within these intervals with a probability of 70 and 95 respectively.It'll also calculate the expected winnings over the amount of hands.The red area shows for any given point, how much the sample is currently away from its previous peak, meaning it tracks downswings.Hands : number of hands entered above.Thirdly the calculator displays the 70 and 95 confidence intervals as light and dark green curves.Variance in numbers, below the first chart the Variance Calculator compiles a neat list of additional information: EV : win rate entered above, standard deviation : standard deviation entered above.
This number will appear as a rather boring straight and black line in the graph.
EV, confidence intervals and samples in BB, Best / Worst: Best and worst run out of 1000 trials.
Probability of running at or above observed win rate : If you entered an observed winrate, this number will show you the probability that you will experience a run at or above this winrate over the amount of hands.Winnings in BB on right axis, current downswing in BB on left axis.The first interval shows absolute numbers, the second translates those into BB/100, showing the 70 confidence interval for your winrate.Winrate in BB / 100, observed winrate in BB / 100 (optional standard deviation?70 confidence interval : Your actual results over the simulated amount of hands will be within this interval 70 of the time.Enter the data, hop over to the, variance Calculator page and enter your winrate, standard deviation and the number of hands you want to simulate.Calculate and the let the Calculator do its magic.
20 samples, the first thing the Variance Calculator does, is to run 20 samples over the amount of hands, winrate and standard deviation specified.
Apart from showing a single sample, this graph also shows some insightful information about downswings.
Meaning: 19 out 20 times your actual winnings will be within this interval.